Honduras.

[arailt]

Talk about it.

[Berserk Sushi]

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Beuk]

Let's put a little bit of effort into this topic, shall we?

Basic (20th C.) history:
In 1963, a military coup was mounted against the democratically-elected president Ramón Villeda Morales. This event started a string of Military Governments which held power almost uninterrupted until 1981 when Suazo Córdova (LPH) was elected president and Honduras changed from a military authoritarian regime. Honduras managed to avoid hugeass Cold War-era civil wars but during the early 1980s, the United States established a continuing military presence in Honduras with the purpose of supporting the Contra guerillas fighting the Nicaraguan government and also developed an air strip and a modern port in Honduras. The Honduran army quietly waged a campaign against Marxist-Leninist militias such as Cinchoneros Popular Liberation Movement, notorious for kidnappings and bombings, and allegedly some non-militants. The operation included a CIA-backed campaign of extra-judicial killings by government-backed units, most notably Battalion 316.

The nation was also beset by natural disasters - most notably Hurricane Mitch in '98 which caused massive destruction. [C+P'd from source]

Politics:
President Manuel Zelaya was elected for a non-renewable four-year term in 2005. He called for a referendum to call for a National Assembly to rewrite the constitution. Zelaya's political opponents claimed that he planned on changing the constitution so he could continue being president. Article 239 of the Honduran Constitution, which forbids any former chief executive from being re-elected President, states that any citizen who proposes reforming this law, and any others who support such a person directly or indirectly, are to immediately "cease carrying out" any public office. The Constitution, however, establishes no process for impeaching or removing a president. Furthermore Article 42, Section 5 of the Constitution states that citizenship is lost for "inciting, promoting or supporting the continuation or the reelection of the President of the Republic." According to the same article, revoking citizenship for this reason requires a court sentence and then a government order ("acuerdo gubernativo").

Zelaya was forcibly removed from his residence by the military in what the international community has largely termed a coup d'etat. He appealed to the gathered members of the Central American Integration System. At the meeting, the presidents of Central America agreed to freeze all official payments and loans to Honduras.

Zelaya's supporters have clashed with soldiers, leading to the reported deaths of two people. There is effectively a national strike of workers, people, students and intellectuals, and they are organized in a popular resistance-run peace movement against this violation of democracy. [Copy and pasted from source]

[Beuk]

http://community.livejournal.com/ontd_political/3441048.html

One relevant post on ONTD_P

[Murphy]

The UN passed a resolution today condemning the coup and demanding that Zelaya be returned to power (sponsored by countries in South America and the Caribbean, along with the United States and Canada) and the Organization of American States is considering suspending Honduras for straying from democracy. A spokesperson for the State Department said that the U.S. sees no solution to the situation other than the reinstatement of Zalaya's government, and they're considering cutting off aid to Honduras if that doesn't happen.

[Berserk Sushi]

Was the president removed from office on suspicion that he sought to renew his term, or because he did (i.e. in accordance with the Honduran constitution)?

[Murphy]

[intelekshual]

There's another interesting twist to this tale. (apart from my half crazy radical left ramblings, which I'll spare you for now) Chavez has been threatening military action if Zelaya is not reinstated. I'm not sure that's the right course of action, but it's a thoroughly predictable (and understandable) one, coming as it does from a once overthrown leader who is an ally of Zelaya's.

[Berserk Sushi]

This gets more and more and more interesting the more I read about it.

For instance, I hadn't heard it mentioned anywhere else that the Honduran Supreme Court ordered the military to remove Zelaya; it's much harder for me to see it as a military coup if it's ordered by the civilian government (the court had the support of the congress, as well).

Nor did I hear people mention the fact that Zelaya fired the head of the military for opposing his referendum to redraft the constitution; and that the court apparently ruled the firing illegal and reinstated him.

I'm double-checking everything, of course, but I'm beginning to get pangs that this might be one of those sad stories in history where the world powers impulsively shut down a legitimate and progressive political development in a poor country.

My mom pointed out another interesting observation: the relative gentleness and passivity of the military. I'll admit, this picture is kind of surreal:

[intelekshual]

That picture is stunningly odd.

Also, if you have any good sources to share, please do. (I haven't clicked your provided link yet, it's early and I've got to plow through some work.)

[Berserk Sushi]

OK, so a little more digging shows so far that Zelaya did indeed fire the head of the military. Zelaya says that there were various agents acting to destabilize the country and promote chaos.

According to the BBC (which is infuriatingly vague, as always), the specific cause for the general's firing was his refusal to distribute ballot boxes for the referendum Zelaya planned to hold, claiming it would break the law. The BBC also alleges that the Honduran Supreme Court ordered the general be reinstated, and that Zelaya flatly refused to comply with the court, accusing them of only support the rich and powerful (funny words coming from one of the wealthiest men in the nation).

According to Reuters: The referendum (or "cuarta urna" - "fourth ballot") apparently called for the support of the citizens in calling a national assembly to revise the constitution. There were already measures in place for altering the constitution through congress - this is one of the things that makes me more suspicious of Zelaya.

Admittedly I'm not well-versed in Honduran law or politics, but from what little I understand it appears that his proposed constitutional assembly is either intended to get around existing impediments to alter the constitution, or is otherwise virtually redundant with the existing avenues for altering the constitution (so why have it, and why call for public support?). Going by some editorials (whose research I've yet to corroborate, but can't yet contest nor support) the assembly would be designed specifically to bypass all existing means of constitutional amendment and draft an entirely new constitution (note that the referendum Zelaya proposed was not to establish this assembly, but to query public support for it).

(I'm biased on this matter, so here's the grain of salt: growing under and appreciating the American Constitution, the idea of a constitution-by-referendum is utterly horrifying to me, and contradicts some of the biggest reasons for a constitution to exist in the first place.)

If that is in fact the case, then redrafting the entire constitution by referendum includes redrafting those clauses which call for the immediate dismissal of those who attempt (or move to attempt) to change them - which is the grounds upon which the court ordered Zelaya's ouster.

Zelaya claims that redrafting the constitution is necessary to correct fundamental inequalities and injustices in the nations government and infrastructure. He did not, as far as I know, specify which, nor did he state or suggest that he wished to run for reelection or to continue his term.

Congress passed a law in response to Zelaya's proposal making it illegal to hold public referendums within 180 days of the general elections. Zelaya's term would have ended with his successor in the election this November, which means the law effectively prohibits Zelaya from running the referendum (I don't know how long the transition is, but I assume it's shorter than 180 days).

Also, the day before Zelaya's detention, the Honduran congress declared an urgent investigation into Zelaya on accusations of violating the constitution and mental instability. The latter seems suspicious to me; it smells either like a loophole to oust a leader or a loophole to catch a criminal (like Capone and tax evasion).

Zelaya's interim successor (elections are still scheduled for November), Micheletti, was part of the opposition to Zelaya in this period, and accused him of wanting to maintain his power. Zelaya's response is particularly interesting, because in it he says that Micheletti is a puny, second-string politician who is only in office because Zelaya made room for him in his party.

This complicates the widespread allegations that this was a military takeover. However the interim government (congress alongside Micheletti, as I understand it) has ordered a curfew and suspended constitutional rights as a temporary measure: the right to public assembly, the right to freely move throughout the country, the right to be presented charges within 24 hours of arrest, and the right of "personal freedom," which seems to be analogous to the freedom of privacy in other constitutions.

The right to public assembly states that only assemblies which are not malicious or violating public orders are protected; the right to move throughout the country has a clause allowing exceptions in special cases as designated by law; the right to personal freedom allows that it may be temporarily suspended in special cases. Which makes some claims that the interim government is going dictatorial lose a lot of substance (that link claims, incorrectly, that the right to protest has been suspended) - these rights were never untouchable to begin with.

Interestingly, these rights are only suspended during the hours of the temporary curfew (from 9PM to 6AM, last I checked) - which lends itself to colorful metaphors of a vampiric or demonic interim government, but does not in fact prevent almost any of these things from actually occurring: how many protests do you know are organized in public squares at midnight? It's very worrisome, yes, but a far cry from silencing the people (formally, anyway).

During the curfew, Micheletti permits some traffic nonetheless - including ambulance and trucks delivering news media. Micheletti has not suspended freedom of the press or free speech, however numerous outlets are claiming that government action has shut them down for periods. It should also be noted that in Honduras the military is responsible for executing the electoral process (which is terrifying, but it also means that the military are not as separated from the electoral process as they are in many other countries - notably those readily condemning the action as a military coup), and that this was true before Zelaya was detained. Calling the action a "military power grab" seems grossly inaccurate.

Zelaya has met with various organizations and governments in this time, including the Organization of American States (OAS in English; OEA in Spanish - same organization) - which, after meeting with Zelaya, had refused audience to any envoy of the interim government. Some news organizations are reporting that many Hondurans are angered by foreign support for Zelaya, especially in light of the widespread audiences he has held internationally compared to the interim government.

Micheletti had suggested (or concurred with a suggestion) to hold a referendum for Zelaya's return so that he may serve the remainder of his term (not for allowing Zelaya's original referendum), but has himself said it would be difficult - probably because, by the same law that made Zelaya's referendum illegal, Micheletti's would be as well - which makes me think this is more of a hollow gesture than anything. At the same time, that's not necessarily the sign of corruption or conspiracy, as the Honduran government has been seeming more and more desperate to calm things down locally.

[intelekshual]

I'm now really looking forward to reading through more of this this afternoon, seriously, thanks for doing the digging Mani!

Without having read up as thoroughly as I'd like to, I will say that I am always suspicious of any story that comes out seeming flat and one dimensional, as the Zelaya story has been played from the beginning. In any situation involving a coup of any kind, the likelihood of the issue being simple, straightforward, and more black or white than shades of gray is pretty damn low.

[Berserk Sushi]

Here's what it looks like to me:

Zelaya is no hero of the people, but I'm sure he had enemies as rich and powerful as he is, with different political ambitions than he does.

Communism, left-wing, right-wing, and pro-America have nothing to do with it. These terms were introduced to the discussion by uninformed spectators, largely due to history and Chavez' involvement.

Take the two together: This is not an ideological conflict. It is a political one.

If Zelaya were truly intent on reforming the constitution to destroy an infrastructure that breeds poverty, as he claims, then why didn't he put this referendum forward three years ago when he first proposed it? Why wait until months before the election at the end of his term?

I see an assumption here and there that he could not possibly have changed the constitution in time to extend his stay in office. That's absurd. He had almost a year to go. As this whole mess is showing, upheavals and motions of legislature can literally happen overnight.

People say that Zelaya was ousted because the elite were afraid of losing power. Ignoring that Zelaya is one of those elite, and his interim successor is a member of his own party that he himself got a seat in congress, I think that is untrue and true: redrafting the entire constitution means redrafting the entire government, which removes any guarantee that any member of any branch of the government will have a job at all, much less anything like what theirs is now...which will rightly worry virtually every politician, regardless of ideology.

I hear a lot of people decrying this "coup" as a blow to democracy because a constitution-by-referendum-and-popular-ratification is about as democratic as a government can get. Any of those people should be embarrassed; they're falling for the oldest trick in the book.

Who's appointing the assembly to rewrite the constitution?

The people may be ratifying the idea of the assembly, and may be ratifying the final product, but they're not making any decisions in the process itself. They are waiving all checks and balances against fundamental changes to any and every part of the government, in order to cede their decisions about how the country should be run to a select group of individuals organized by the current leader.

We've seen this play before. Who honestly thinks it's difficult to get the public to emphatically approve a government that will fuck them over?

Drastic changes to government are sometimes needed. But when they are uncontrolled, it is much more dangerous - because it only takes one man to take it too far, and freeze all other changes following the ones he makes. This is the reason the constitution was designed to prevent that, in Honduras.

Here's the punchline, to me: Zelaya is actually and literally asking to sidestep every law of the government - or to give that power to someone else.

And in a country so sensitive and afraid of exactly that, and so poor, all he needs to do is say he's fighting that, and he's a hero or martyr at the least. Suddenly, openly defying the rest of the government is a heroic thing.

When the other side, legitimately or not, has guns - getting unanimous international support is child's play.

[jazzhall]

Well now, right before I rejoin those in the ivory tower...I remembered to visit.

I concur with Mani, Zelaya, to my knowledge has some popularity with certain segments of the population - however this is a dichotomy, for certainly several segments, and not just the land-holding upper class and what middle class there is are actively supporting the current, if however illegal regime. This is not an ideaologically based conflict but a one-based in political manuevering. Whatever relationship of those actions to ideology is tenuous at best and several steps away from the primary/secondary motivations of the action.

Zelaya's timing for the referendum and proposed reasons present a poor public affairs effort at best, and could be, as Mani surmises, more so a means to sustain leadership utilizing the guise of national priorities.

This being said, the reality is that while legislative upheavals and motions of said bodies can happen abruptly, changes to the consitution are not always so swift, particularly in a conflicted group. Witness the defeat of Chavez's recent effort to extend his mandate. The stage is set, a definite precondition for such quick change, but I suspect that research of precedent would not bring much fruit.

Black letter law...a coup d'etat is a blow to democracy, it is the removal of the elected office-holder, however corrupt etc. Hence the hesitation of the US to comment more actively upon the Iranian situation. You can take several cuts at this, I agree, but while its a popular and perhaps appropriate view, there's some credence beyond obvious foreign policy statement needs to see here.

All that said, the fact that he tried to circumvent the checks and balances of his own country, however misguided his interest in bringing forth this issue, is a political tactic which deservedly failed. I would have liked to have seen other steps taken rather than a military-supported event as has taken place - and I see little good will come out of the immediate return he's made from Nicaragua earlier today. The idae of power-sharing and early elections, offered up by the President of Costa Rica makes sense, and is a bit of a face saving measure for all of the above. We'll see what comes out of this.

[Berserk Sushi]

It's kind of disheartening how quickly the rest of the world stopped giving a crap about this.

[jazzhall]

Oddly, I haven't heard what the latest update is on the president's return to the country and current residence in the Brazilian embassy. Curious who worked that from Brazil's side.